836
FXUS64 KMEG 021145 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 625 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED, THOUGH
ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE BENEFICIAL GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
- A DRIER AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIRMASS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING, LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE MID-SOUTH UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING INTO THE REGION. AFTER A QUIET
NIGHT, TUESDAY WILL BRING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL IMPINGE
FROM THE EAST AND MUSTER UP JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OR LARGE ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN
ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR. PW VALUES ARE NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM
(1-1.5") COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ANY ACCUMULATION AMOUNT IS WELCOMED, BUT THIS
CERTAINLY WILL NOT BE A DROUGHT BUSTER.
VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT KEEPS CONFIDENCE ON THE LOWER SIDE
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, BUT WIDELY LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH ANY LINGERING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY LEADING TO QUICK UPSCALE GROWTH.
HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY. THE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ROTATE THROUGH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA
KEEPING LINGERING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. PEAK POPS (40-60%) ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH COVERAGE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AND CHANCES LOWERING TO 20-40% THEREAFTER. DESPITE A RISE IN POPS,
PROBABILITIES OF HALF AN INCH OF RAIN ARE ONLY 30-60% STRETCHING
IN A LINE FROM JACKSON, TN TO OXFORD, MS AND EASTWARD.
A DRY, WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY ROTATE THAT INVERTED TROUGH
OUT OF THE AREA AND SQUASH ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL FOLLOW
SHORTLY BEHIND IT WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF RECEIVING RAINFALL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRIEFLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
RAISE PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER. THIS FRONT WILL CROSS QUICKLY AND
WE WILL SETTLE INTO A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME BY SATURDAY
EVENING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER WITH 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS FOR A COMFORTABLE FEEL.
WE LOOK TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT BEYOND THEN,
MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE. THE CPC MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER HAS
THE MID-SOUTH IN EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED FOR THE NEXT CHANCE OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS, AS LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND VFR PREVAIL.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH AR AT 1145Z. SCATTERED -SHRA WAS
NOTED ON REGIONAL RADARS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER
18Z, THE BULK OF -SHRA POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF MEM,
LINGERING A FEW HOURS AT TUP.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 2 2025
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PARTIALLY MODERATE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BETTER WETTING
RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY, AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. LOW DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SETTLE BEHIND THIS
FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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