931
FXUS64 KMEG 030416
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 90S.
- A COOLER AIRMASS WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION BY SATURDAY, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FRONT AND IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SKIES ARE SLOWLY CLEARING AND SOME PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT
WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST. THE BOUNDARY WILL
ROUGHLY BE LOCATED ALONG I-40.
BY THURSDAY, THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND RESULT IN A
FEW STORMS THERE, BUT THE MAIN PUSH WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THAT FRONT NEVER GETS THROUGH THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN ON FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY IS VERY WARM. 925 MB TEMPS OF OVER 29C WILL YIELD HIGHS
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S. FORTUNATELY, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE
TOO BAD AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHEAR WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST AND ANOTHER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
REMOVED THE -TSRA TOMORROW AS CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, AND LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. OTHERWISE, ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO WINDS. CU FIELD WILL LIKELY RETURN TOMORROW BY
MIDDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
3-6KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-40 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ON THURSDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED AND DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE DROUGHT CONCERNS IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY. SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS OVER AT LEAST PART OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JDS
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