091
FXUS64 KMEG 031828
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
128 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRIER AND MORE PLEASANT
WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
THE LATEST KNQA RADAR SWEEP REVEALS A POCKET OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE. SOME
SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT IMPACTS HAVE
REMAINED MINIMAL. THIS ACTIVITY LACKS ANY REAL UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND IS LIKELY ROOTED ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, AS
NOTED IN THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. AS SUCH, ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL BE TYPICAL PULSE STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT THE
HREF AND NBM GUIDANCE HAD FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AS A RESULT I
ADJUSTED POPS UP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONUNDRUM REMAINS THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
LORENA, CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFS
REMAINS LARGELY ALIGNED WITH CURRENT HURRICANE MODEL TRACKS WHICH
TAKE A NORTHEAST TRACK INTO MAINLAND MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TEXAS,
WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES LORENA BACK OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND KEEPS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT GFS
SOLUTION WILL BRING HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH, AS
HEIGHTS BUILD DOWNSTREAM OF THE REMNANTS, WHILE THE ECMWF FAVORS
COOLER SOLUTIONS WITH LESS RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN NW FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS TO PIVOT THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOW CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT)
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING, BUT HAVE
VERY LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO GENERATE ANY APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL. FRIDAY LOOKS PARTICULARLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF THE BROADENING
TROUGH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A MEDIUM CHANCE (30-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY. BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND PERSIST
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LREF GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EARLY
INTERPRETATION LEADS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AC3
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SPORADIC
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP-UP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE MIRRORED WITH A VCTS AT MEM. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT MKL/TUP AS WINDS GO CALM ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT
30 HOURS OR SO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
SEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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