636
FXUS64 KMEG 040429
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1016 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRIER AND
MORE PLEASANT WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE INTO
NORTHERN ARKANSANS. THIS ILL-DEFINED FEATURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CONUS DEAMPLIFIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY ENHANCED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT, BUT
MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LUCKILY, RETURN FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK, SO MOISTURE LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS THEY COULD BE FOR
EARLY SEPTEMBER. AS A RESULT, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100
AND CERTAINLY BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA(105 DEGREES).
LATE FRIDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUR BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WE HAVE SEEN IN OVER A WEEK, AND PROBABLY WON'T SEE AGAIN
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS OR LONGER. THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE HAS SPED
UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN. THIS MAY GIVE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH A BIT EARLIER RELIEF FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS HEAT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT A 30-40%
CHANCE OF GREATER THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS EAST
ARKANSAS, THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE,
TAPERING OFF TO ONLY ABOUT 10% SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TUPELO,
MISSISSIPPI TO CLARKSDALE, MISSISSIPPI. INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGH,
BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS VERY WEAK.
MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH BY MID-AFTERNOON
SATURDAY AS THE SEASONABLY STRONG FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN US. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COOLEST
PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
WARMER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 90
DEGREES UNTIL WEDNESDAY. STRONG, BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT FROM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING THE MIDSOUTH RAIN FREE FOR THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG AT MKL/TUP.
THURSDAY IS LOOKING QUIETER ON THE CONVECTIVE SIDE WITH WEST
WINDS AROUND 8 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO NE AR AND SWITCH
WINDS TO THE NORTH AT JBR FOR A SHORT TIME TOMORROW MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A HIGHER CHANCE (40-60%) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING
RAINFALL. A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY BACK
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO 30S PERCENT RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...SJM
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