548
FXUS64 KMEG 041815
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
113 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 107 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-
SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
IN PLACE FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT, WITH PLEASANT,
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES FEATURING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM BUFFALO, NEW
YORK SOUTHWEST INTO CLEVELAND, OHIO AND BACK INTO WEST TENNESSEE.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY.
ALOFT, A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER
ONTARIO, CANADA WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TROPICAL STORM LORENA, NEAR
BAJA CALIFORNIA, REMAINS ON A NORTHERN TRACK TOWARDS THE PENINSULA
AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL
POOL AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL FUEL A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM ENERGY, FEATURING UP TO 2500 J/KG
OF MLCAPE. INITIALLY, BULK SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK OR BELOW
20 KNOTS, HOWEVER, A MID LEVEL JET WILL SET UP FRIDAY EVENING AND
INCREASE BULK SHEAR BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. THE DEGREE TO WHICH
BOTH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP, STILL REMAINS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR. NONETHELESS, A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM MODE WILL INITIALLY BE
SURFACE BASED ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN
BECOME ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
BECOME SEVERE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. A LIMITED FLOODING THREAT MAY EMERGE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY OVER
NORTH MISSISSIPPI, AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS EXPANSIVE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 70S AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. REALLY ONLY TAF
CONCERN THIS ISSUANCE IS SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 8 KTS OF LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2025
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(40-50%) OF WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL. SEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT DROPPING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BACK INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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