403
FXUS64 KMEG 052328
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- A PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND IS ON TAP, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING HIGH CIRRUS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AIR HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT, NOTED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
AND STALL RIGHT ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE WITH UP TO
2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ON HAND. COUPLED WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS OF BULK
SHEAR, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO
4 HOURS AND LIKELY INITIATE IN WEST TENNESSEE. A SLIGHT RISK
(2/5) HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY EXPANDED FOR AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER, WHERE LIFT, INSTABILITY, AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REST OF THE MID-SOUTH.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS WITH A LOW
RISK (<5%) OF TORNADOES ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. STORM MODE WILL INITIALLY BE SINGLE CELLULAR
AND QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICLUSTERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE
THREAT WILL SHIFT A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AROUND SUNDOWN AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CLOSE BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH. PLENTY OF
LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT STRONG CONVECTION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
QPF TOTALS WILL BE SPORADIC ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH UP TO A
QUARTER INCH NORTH OF I-40 AND UP TO 1 INCH TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH, WHICH IS NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH TO IMPROVE ANY ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BROAD SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COOL WEEKEND IS ON TAP
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S
EACH MORNING. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD QUICKLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
EACH
DAY WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S BY NEXT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NO BIG PRECIPITATION SIGNAL IN THE SHORT
TO LONG TERM FORECAST. DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WORSEN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUCH
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAIN THE TREND. THIS IS ECHOED BY
BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOKS
THAT WERE ISSUED YESTERDAY.
AC3
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS WEST TN AT THIS
TIME AND COULD APPROACH THE MEM TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PROB30 REMARKS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE RETAINED AT MEM DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND VCSH/-SHRA
REMARKS ALONG WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE LATEST
FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO EXIST AT MEM,
MKL, AND TUP WITH LAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTING IFR CEILINGS MAY MATERIALIZE
AT TUP. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
THE MAJORITY OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE WETTING RAINFALL BY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LONG TERM FORECAST
OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE, WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...TAB
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