049
FXUS64 KMEG 060407
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL BE
CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT, DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN.
- A PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND IS ON TAP, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A RELATIVELY SLOPPY CONVECTIVE SCHEME IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AS A LARGE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
FIRST INITIAL WAVE OF PRE-FRONTAL MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS HAS COME
AND GONE, LEAVING A THOROUGHLY WORKED-OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE CURRENT LULL IN BETWEEN WAVES OF
CONVECTION IS MUCH QUIETER THAN THE PREVIOUS 12Z/18Z CAMS RUNS HAD
SHOWN; THE REMAINING ACTIVITY ON RADAR AS OF 11PM FRI IS SO LIGHT
THAT IT'S BARELY BEING PICKED UP BY KNQA. LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE
IS A SECONDARY ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE ARKLATEX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE FEATURE.
WHILE THE LATEST CAMS STILL SIMULATE THIS INCOMING ACTIVITY
RIDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ARRIVING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY, IT'S PROBABLY GOING TO BE NOTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BY THAT POINT. POINT SOUNDINGS FOR NE
ARKANSAS AROUND THE ARRIVAL TIME OF CONVECTION ARE SHOWING NO
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WHATSOEVER. THERE IS SOME MUCAPE ON THE
ORDER OF 1000 J/KG, BUT IT WOULD NEED SOME SERIOUS FORCING HELP
FROM THE SHORTWAVE IN ORDER TO TAP INTO THAT. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE WINDOW OF OVERLAP BETWEEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
KINEMATIC SUPPORT (BOTH ON THE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE) IS QUICKLY
CLOSING.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE VERY SLOW PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-40. BY NOON, POPS
FINALLY TAPER OFF AS THE EFFECTS OF AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
AIRMASS FINALLY TAKE HOLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE
SITTING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 70S. SUNDAY MORNING
LOOKS EVEN MORE PLEASANT WITH A TRUE FALL FEEL OF LOW 50S
TEMPERATURES AND SIMILARLY LOW DEWPOINTS. WE'LL GET TO STAY IN
THIS COOL, DRY PATTERN FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BUT IT WILL
UNFORTUNATELY COME TO AN END SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ESSENTIALLY THE INVERSE
OF WHAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW. A LARGE OMEGA BLOCK LOOKS TO SET UP
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MIGRATE EASTWARD EACH DAY MOVING INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE AS OUR PATTERN
SWAPS TO RIDGING, THOUGH POPS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LOW IN THE
ABSENCE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. THIS WILL LIKELY WORSEN ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. LOW TO MID 90S TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK AND
ARE HERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
CAD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF MEM, MKL AND JBR. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE CEILINGS WILL
LINGER. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING
OUTSIDE OF ACTIVITY. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 21Z
WITH CALM TO LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE UPTICK THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS MOVES IN. AFTERNOON
MINRHS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW DECLINE EACH DAY, HOVERING
AROUND 25% BY MONDAY. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONCERNS AND VERY
LITTLE OBSERVED RAINFALL, FUELS WILL BE PRIMED. KBDI VALUES HAVE A
BULLSEYE MAX FOR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ALREADY. LUCKILY, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...DNM
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