740
FXUS64 KMEG 062306
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 606 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
- A PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
12Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. LATE MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH
NORTHERN ALABAMA AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR
TRENDS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL RAIN SHOWERS GENERALLY ALONG A LINE
FROM
JONESBORO, AR TO HUNTINGDON, TN. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE MUCH COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO WITH LOWER 60S PREVALENT AS OF
10 AM CDT.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A 1022 MB
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF PLEASANT COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LOWS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCATIONS
NORTH OF I-40. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AS
ELEVATED WINDS MAY MITIGATE ANY CONCERNS.
LONG-TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF RAIN FREE WEATHER
ALONG WITH A RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MEM, JBR, AND
TUP WITH N/NE WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT MKL ALONG
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, CALM WINDS, AND A WEAK LOW- LEVEL
INVERSION DROPPING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM 09-12Z.
PROBABILITIES ARE ON THE RISE FOR FOG TO CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS,
BUT WILL HOLD OFF TO SEE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
SUNRISE.
AMD NOT SKED AT KTUP DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND
25 PERCENT BY MONDAY. A LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO DRIER
FUELS.
HOWEVER, LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER IN
THE SHORT TERM. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISING ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 90S.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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