314
FXUS64 KMEG 070405
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
- A PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AS OF 9:30 PM. CLEAR SKIES, SATURATED SURFACES, AND CALM WINDS IS
A NICE RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP. PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE, NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER, AND
INTO EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND MORNINGS,
BUT PLEASANT FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING
WITH LOWS DIPPING BELOW 50 DEGREES FOR AREAS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
AND MISSOURI BORDERS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING HUMIDITY
AT BAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL HEIGHTEN AND BUILD FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS RIDGE OVER THE AREA LATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PRESENCE OF STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. THIS IS
NOT GOOD NEWS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTENS
DANGEROUS WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT MEM, JBR, AND
TUP WITH N/NE WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM AT MKL ALONG
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, CALM WINDS, AND A WEAK LOW- LEVEL
INVERSION DROPPING TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM 09-12Z. FOG SHOULD
LIFT BY SUNRISE.
AMED NOT SKED AT KTUP DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 30% FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
TUESDAY WILL HAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION HOVERING AROUND
40%, BUT WILL QUICKLY DIP BELOW 30% AGAIN WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
ARE NIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DNM
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