983
FXUS64 KMEG 071144 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 634 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- A PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025
A QUIET AND CLEAR NIGHT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS AGO
AS OF 9:30 PM. CLEAR SKIES, SATURATED SURFACES, AND CALM WINDS IS
A NICE RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP. PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE, NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER, AND
INTO EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND
EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHTS AND MORNINGS,
BUT PLEASANT FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COOLEST MORNING
WITH LOWS DIPPING BELOW 50 DEGREES FOR AREAS NEAR THE KENTUCKY
AND MISSOURI BORDERS. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
PLENTIFUL DRY AIR SUPPRESSING RAIN CHANCES AND KEEPING HUMIDITY
AT BAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL HEIGHTEN AND BUILD FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S. LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS RIDGE OVER THE AREA LATE INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE LONG PRESENCE OF STRONG RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ELEVATED AND CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. THIS IS
NOT GOOD NEWS FOR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND HEIGHTENS
DANGEROUS WILDLAND FIRE CONDITIONS.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE TN RIVER AND IN THE VALLEYS OF WEST TN WILL
AFFECT MKL EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 15Z FOG POTENTIAL WILL HAVE
ENDED ACROSS ALL THE MIDSOUTH, AS DRY CANADIAN AIR WARMS UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN SEP 6 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL HOVER AROUND 30% FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
RAIN CHANCES ARE NIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND WITH ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE RISE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ005-006.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TNZ022-
053>055-090>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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