453
FXUS64 KMEG 090346
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S.
- ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AS AN OMEGA
BLOCK PUSHES INTO CENTRAL CONUS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL
ADVECT MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. UNFORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
OMEGA BLOCK DOMINATES THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BY THURSDAY,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THE GOOD NEWS IN
RELATION TO THIS FORECAST: DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 60S.
AS SUCH, HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HEAT HEADLINE
THRESHOLD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. GIVEN PROLONGED DRY
CONDITIONS, AREAS OF THE MID-SOUTH WILL LIKELY SEE AN UPGRADE TO
D2 SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL VEER TO THE SE DURING THE DAYTIME, GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST THIS WEEK AS MINRH VALUES REMAIN
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. THIS, COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS, WILL
PRODUCE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR EASY FIRE DEVELOPMENT. THE GOOD
NEWS: 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 MPH, SO ANY FIRE THAT DOES
IGNITE SHOULD NOT SPREAD QUICKLY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA
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