793
FXUS64 KMEG 091724
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND GOES WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DEPICT AN
OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE ROCKIES WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1029 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND 11 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER
80S.
A TRANQUIL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SHIFTS EAST
TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST NAEFS AND ESAT ANALYSIS
INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE
DURING THIS PERIOD. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MIDDLE 90S TO APPROACHING
100 DEGREES AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST NBM AND OTHER LONG-RANGE
DATASETS. LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL PRECLUDE ANY RISK FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A CU FIELD IS
SPREADING. OBSERVATIONS HAVE THIS CU FIELD AROUND 3,300 FT AGL.
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS, BUT
PREVAILING MVFR IS NOT EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
LONGEVITY OR OCCURRENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN
TOMORROW.
AMD NOT SKED AT KTUP FOR EQUIPMENT FAILURE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT RAIN AND LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISK BY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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