885
FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
BACK INTO MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S BY THIS WEEKEND.
- ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
WEEK. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED IN ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN CURRENTLY REMAINS BENIGN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND DAILY, WEAK LEE
CYCLOGENESIS THROUGHOUT THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PLACES THE MID-
SOUTH IN A PATTERN CONSISTING OF MODERATE (55-60 F) DEWPOINTS AND
HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY WITH A
LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE
RIDGE GRADUALLY TRANSLATING INTO THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. IN
RESPONSE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW SURFACE HUMIDITY WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES UNDER TRIPLE DIGITS.
POPS WILL ALSO REMAIN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
AND LIKELY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. LOOKING AT TODAY'S UPPER
SOUNDINGS, BOTH OBSERVED AND FORECAST, DECENT RIDING IS EVIDENT
FROM AROUND 700 MB AND UP. WITH NEBULOUS FORCING FROM WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND LOW DEW POINTS, INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PREVENT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION.
FURTHERMORE, AS THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE FROM THE WEST MAKES ITS WAY
EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL FURTHER CAP OFF ANY ATTEMPTS AT DEEP
CONVECTION. GUIDANCE IS KEEN ON KEEPING THIS RIDGE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ENSEMBLES BEGIN
TO DIVERGE, BUT STILL AVERAGE OUT TO A WEAK PATTERN. LASTLY, MUCH
OF THE REGION IS IN A D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT WITH LOCALIZED AREAS
OF D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT. WITH NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK AND NO CURRENT THREAT OF LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEMS, DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN WITH TIME THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRETY OF THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY (60%-80% PER LATEST NBM) TO REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED PLAINS
RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN, HEAT INDICES WILL BE
TEMPERED BY LOW HUMIDITY, UNLIKELY TO RISE MORE THAN A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE THE AIR TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, HEAT MAY STILL BE
UNCOMFORTABLE AS WE EXPERIENCE SUMMER- LIKE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME, BUT SOME RELIEF WILL BE EXPERIENCED OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL OSCILLATE FROM SE TO SW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2025
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ALREADY BORDERING ON 30% - 40% AS OF TODAY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FALLING THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. BY
SATURDAY, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30%
NEARLY AREA-WIDE, LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS IN AT LEAST A D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN WITH TIME DUE TO A LACK OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS WILL
KEEP MORE SERIOUS FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY FOR THE TIME-BEING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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