209
FXUS64 KMEG 102301
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 559 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE MID-SOUTH LEADING TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO HIT 100
DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID-
SOUTH. HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL NOW BE THE DOMINATING
WEATHER PATTERN AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. AN MCV OVER KANSAS AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE MID-
SOUTH; HOWEVER, BASED ON DETERMINISTIC AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS, A
STOUT COLUMN OF DRY AIR KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ON PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
A 592 DAM RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY TRAVERSE EAST
AND TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARDS. BY THURSDAY, PROBABILITIES
FROM THE NBM OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES ARE 60% OR HIGHER
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. BY MONDAY, THE ENTIRE AREA IS
HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE 80% FOR TEMPERATURES ABOVE 90 DEGREES. EVEN
SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (10-35%) CREEP INTO THE MID-SOUTH FOR
TEMPERATURES OVER 100 DEGREES. THANKFULLY, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A CONSISTENT PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW, KEEPING MOISTURE INFLUX
ON THE LOW SIDE. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
THE TRIPLE DIGITS (NO HEAT HEADLINES) UNDER THIS REGIME.
AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THIS PATTERN, BUT GIVEN
THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE, POPS ARE NEGLIGIBLE. WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF PRECIPITATION, ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OR WORSEN OVER TIME. LONG-TERM GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE RIDGE WILL PERSIST, LEADING TO CONTINUED HOT
CONDITIONS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALREADY HIGHLIGHTED
THE MID-SOUTH IN A SLIGHT RISK (20-40%) OF HAZARDOUS TEMPERATURES
SEPTEMBER 17-19.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, INCREASING UP TO BETWEEN
5 TO 7 KTS THROUGH THE DAYTIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT RAIN AND LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES (25-35%) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER RISK BY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CMA
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