006
FXUS64 KMEG 111153
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 650 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE MID-SOUTH LEADING TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO HIT 100
DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO TRAVEL EAST
TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, RISING THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HUMIDITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOWER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED BACK IN AUGUST AS DEW POINTS
SETTLE IN THE 50S AND 60S. THEREFORE, HEAT INDICES, AT LEAST
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES AND LOWERING THE HAZARD FROM DANGEROUS HEAT.
POPS WILL ALSO BE LOW (0% - 10%) DURING THIS TIME. UPPER HEIGHT
RISES IN COMBINATION WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTO DRY MID
LEVELS WILL LOWER INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO MAKE DEEP CONVECTION
DIFFICULT WITHOUT ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
00Z SHOW THIS RIDGING ALOFT, AND THIS SIGNAL PERSISTS IN FORECAST
RAP SOUNDINGS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME INSTABILITY DOES
EXIST IN THIS GUIDANCE THAT COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED, SHALLOW
RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD AND MEANINGFUL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM NEXT WEEK AND THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUITE KEEPS THE REGION
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AFTERNOON
MOISTURE, WHICH WILL AFFECT OUR HEAT INDICES, WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE NEAR WITHIN THE 850-700 MB (AVERAGE
MIXING HEIGHT). LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF/NBM GUIDANCE, VALUES AT 850
MB RANGE BETWEEN 50-60 F, SUGGESTING THAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
STAY WELL AWAY FROM TEMPERATURES WARRANTING ANY HEAT HEADLINES.
DUE TO STRONG DIURNAL MIXING, INSTABILITY WILL BE STIFLED MUCH
LIKE THE BEGINNING HALF OF THE FORECAST, KEEPING POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE LAST THING TO MENTION IS THE ONGOING D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT.
THE MID-SOUTH HAS NOT SEEN WIDESPREAD, MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IN THE
PAST FEW WEEKS WITH ONLY A FEW BOUTS OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS. THIS
HAS BROUGHT THE REGION TO 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL BELOW NORMAL
IN THE LAST 30 DAYS. NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN THIS FORECAST
LEADS TO THE CONCLUSION THAT THE CURRENT DROUGHT SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN WITH TIME. FIRE WEATHER ALSO BECOMES A PROBLEM
AS FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY WITH FIRE DANGER CONTINUING TO RISE,
ESPECIALLY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30% DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LUCKILY, THE PRESENCE OF THIS NEW RIDGE WILL KEEP A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AWAY FROM THE REGION, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER RISK. HOWEVER, ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD
BE DONE WITH CAUTION FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. THIS IS MAINLY A WIND FORECAST DUE TO THE
SURFACE HIGH MEANDERING ABOUT THE EASTERN CONUS, GIVING WAY TO
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DEBATED ADDING A
PROB30 AT TUP FOR SPOTTY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT
ULTIMATELY DECIDED AGAINST IT GIVEN THE OUTLIERS IN CAM GUIDANCE.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
BELOW NORMAL NORMAL RAINFALL AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES (25-35%) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER RISK BY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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