309
FXUS64 KMEG 111717
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE MID-SOUTH LEADING TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO HIT 100
DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
AN OMEGA BLOCK COVERS THE CONUS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE MID-SOUTH, EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA ARE STILL UNDER
FEELING SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD SCRAPE THE TN RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS SOME WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THAT TROUGH.
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH, SINCE MOISTURE
IS VERY SHALLOW.
THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID-SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
HEAT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WITH MID AND UPPER 90S BECOMING COMMON
AREA WIDE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF 100 DEGREES READINGS SINCE THE
AIR MASS IS PRETTY DRY THOUGH NBM GUIDANCE DID COME IN A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER THIS PAST RUN. THE GULF REMAINS SHUT OFF THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHICH WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THE
HUMIDITIES IN CHECK. THE HEAT WILL NOT HAVE THE SAME BITE AS
AUGUST. THE OMEGA BLOCK START TO BREAK DOWN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK SO AFTERNOON PRECIP CHANCES MAY START TO TICK UP AS THE
RIDGE WEAKENS.
THE DRY, HOT WEATHER WITH LITTLE RAIN AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
RESULT IN WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT HAS EXPANDED TO COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NE AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SPREAD. FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY AND RH VALUES DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON STARTING SATURDAY. ON A POSITIVE NOTE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY A WIND FORECAST
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT WINDS TO BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(25-35%) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISK BY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S, WITH 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...ANS
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