185
FXUS64 KMEG 121129
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 627 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH
LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO HIT 100
DEGREES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF WESTERN
AND EASTERN TROUGHS, WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE
PLAINS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY SITS ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND
THE EASTERN TROUGH, WHICH IS SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. HEIGHT
RISES BEHIND THIS TROUGH HAVE ALLOWED FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
INCREASE TODAY WITH OBSERVED HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS RIDGING TO
THE WEST AMPLIFIES AND BRINGS GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EVENTUALLY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND PLATEAU THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT VALUES, BUT SURFACE MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE THAT THRESHOLD. REGARDLESS, HEAT
WILL BECOME UNCOMFORTABLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN QUITE ERRATIC WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION.
EXPECTATIONS WERE THAT AN INCREASE IN BACKGROUND RIDGING WOULD
LEAD TO A STRONGER MID LEVEL WARM NOSE, AND IN RESPONSE, A LOWER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE WEEK PROGRESSED. IN CONTRAST,
AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HAS FAILED TO DECREASE DEW POINTS
TO PRODUCE ENOUGH MLCIN TO HAMPER ANY CONVECTION. THIS WAS EVIDENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY AS SEVERAL
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED ALONG THE TN RIVER. THIS LEADS TO THE IDEA
THAT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY, EVEN IF RIDGING
IS STILL AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT 00Z
HREF GUIDANCE, THE MAJORITY OF MEMBERS FAIL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON TODAY. THIS IS DIRECTLY OPPOSED
TO A BETTER PERFORMANCE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTERNOON SHOWERS FROM
YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, EXPECT ANOTHER LOW (0% - 10%)
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH CHANGES POSSIBLE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD STILL DECREASE MORE WITH TIME THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE
590 DM RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRESENT ALONG A LINE FROM TX TO MI,
TRANSLATING EAST WITH TIME. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH CONSISTENT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
500 - 1000 J/KG RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY, WHICH IS LIKELY IN THE
UPPER ECHELON OF POSSIBLE VALUES. AS SUCH, LOW END POPS (AGAIN 0
- 20%) REMAIN IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS IN THE PAST MONTH, A D2
(SEVERE) DROUGHT HAS CREPT INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MID-SOUTH
AND A D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT ACROSS NEARLY THE REST OF THE REGION.
FUTURE RAIN PROSPECTS DO NOT INSTILL OPTIMISM IN ANY RELIEF FROM
THIS DROUGHT THAT SHOULD ONLY GROW IN SIZE AND SEVERITY WITHIN
THIS PATTERN. IN ADDITION, A GROWING DROUGHT ALSO MEANS THAT FIRE
DANGERS ARE ALSO ELEVATED WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 20S AND
30S THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, LIMITING THE OVERALL THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER FIRE DANGER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<15%) OF A STRAY
-SHRA NEAR MEM, JBR, AND MKL TODAY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
(25-35%) WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
RISK BY THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S, WITH 20 FT WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AC3
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