683
FXUS64 KMEG 121627
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH.
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
A PESKY OMEGA BLOCK WILL DOMINATE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERNS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID-SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER EAST THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SOAR INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS TREND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN SIGHT. THE GOOD NEWS REGARDING THIS FORECAST: DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING
OFF ANY POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES REACHING HEADLINE CRITERIA.
IN ADDITION TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, RAIN CHANCES ARE FEW
AND FAR BETWEEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH DAY, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE D2 SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT DIFFERING PATTERNS AS WE APPROACH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE GEFS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT EJECTING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE ENS KEEPS THINGS HOT AND DRY IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FOR NOW, PREPARE FOR A PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY
WEATHER.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<15%) OF A STRAY
-SHRA NEAR MEM, JBR, AND MKL TODAY, BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS PLAGUE THE MID-SOUTH. MINRH WILL REMAIN IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE WITH FUEL MOISTURE SITTING JUST ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
ONE THING TO NOTE: 20FT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO
ANY FIRE THAT DOES IGNITE WILL LIKELY NOT SPREAD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3
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