559
FXUS64 KMEG 141300
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
800 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 757 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE LIMITED RELIEF
FROM THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-40. OTHERWISE, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO LACK
OF PRECIPITATION AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO RAISES WILDLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH MID-WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 757 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE TN
RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY.
COVERAGE ISN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH, BUT HIGH ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) RANGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK WITH MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
AC3
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FEATURES AN OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH LATE THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.
LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL TRENDS SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH MAINLY SUNDAY
EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AREAS THAT ARE FORTUNATE TO RECEIVE
ANY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.7 INCHES.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HARD TO COME BY ACROSS THE
AREA UNTIL THE BLOCKING PATTERN BREAKS DOWN.
LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN BY
LATE WEEK, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURNING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANY
APPRECIABLE RAIN TO ALLEVIATE THE MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IS NOT EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SCATTERED -SHRAS AND ISOLATED -TSRAS
INTO THE EASTERN SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL INCREASE TO
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS
ACROSS THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3
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