545
FXUS64 KMEG 141639
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK, THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO A
LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO
RAISES WILDLAND FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE NEAR THE TN RIVER, WHERE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY AXIS EXISTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE FURTHER
INTO WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS OVERNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE NEGLIGIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE COMING DAYS WILL FEATURE A GRADUAL BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BROADENS AND
RETROGRADES. DAILY RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BUT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS INDICATE GREATER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A DEGREE OR TWO AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE OMEGA BLOCK DISSIPATE, PLACING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S BY FRIDAY. DESPITE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE MID-SOUTH.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SCATTERED -SHRAS AND ISOLATED -TSRAS
INTO THE EASTERN SITES NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. DRY FUELS AND
MINRH AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ENCOURAGE WILDLAND FIRE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LIGHT 20FT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE SPREAD TO A MINIMUM.
FORTUNATELY, WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3
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