501
FXUS64 KMEG 150433
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO A
LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO
RAISES WILDLAND FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN TRAVELING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS A DIURNAL INVERSION
BEGINS TO BUILD. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. CAMS DO TRY TO BRING HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BY 09Z-10Z, LASTING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, MLCAPE WILL BE LOW (< 1000
J/KG) WITH WEAK FORCING, THE PRESENCE OF MLCIN FROM THE OVERNIGHT
INVERSION, AND 20 KNOTS OR LESS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THEREFORE,
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAZARDS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.
LOOKING AT A SYNOPTIC SCALE, A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OMEGA BLOCK
CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO. THE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BLOCK
HAS SETTLED OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLIES
STILL PRESENT OVER THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF SUBTLE TROUGHING
COULD KEEP AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, POPS STILL REMAIN LOW
ALONGSIDE SIMILAR CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION, BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE
MEANTIME, HIGHS WILL STILL BE VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE 90S, SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER DELTA TODAY.
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRAVEL NORTH
AND EAST INTO CANADA, SHOVING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PUTS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO A REX BLOCK
(HIGH OVER LOW) THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONARY. THEREFORE, AFTERNOON/EVENING
PRECIPITATION COULD LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT GUIDANCE
IS NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH POPS BELOW 15% TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STOUT MID-LEVEL INVERSION
AROUND 700 MB THAT WOULD SERVE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION, BUT
RECENT DAYS HAVE OVERPERFORMED ON MOISTURE, PRODUCING HIGHER
MLCAPE THAT HAS ALLOWED PARCELS TO SURPASS THESE LAYERS.
REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST COULD GO EITHER WAY, AND WITHOUT UPPER
AIR OBSERVATIONS, IT WOULD PROVE NAUGHT TO ATTEMPT PLACING
MENTIONABLE POPS ANYWHERE AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE
0%-10% FROM THE NBM WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES TO THIS FORECAST
LIKELY.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE EASTERN UPPER LOW DRIFT
NORTH AND EAST. AT THE SAME TIME, RIDGING WILL REMAIN, ALTHOUGH
NOTABLY WEAKER. HIGH TEMPERATURES DECREASE A FEW DEGREES IN
RESPONSE WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. ENSEMBLES SHOW LARGE VARIABILITY WITH
REGARDS TO THE POSITION AND EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS TROUGH,
CASTING SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY QPF POTENTIAL IN THE
MID-SOUTH. REGARDLESS, NBM POPS ARE IN THE 30% - 40% RANGE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ALONGSIDE A SMATTERING OF LOW QPF (< .5"). THESE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET CLOSE
TO THIS WEEKEND AND ENSEMBLES ARE ABLE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ENSEMBLE UNCERTAINTY RISES
SIGNIFICANTLY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH, BUT GENERALLY
MOVE IT EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THEREFORE,
POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THESE DAYS TO END THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR AT MOST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT MKL AND HAVE ADDED VCSH IN FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY
DEVELOP NEAR MEM DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR THE POTENTIAL BETWEEN 21Z-02Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON
COVERAGE AT JBR FOR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LEFT OUT ANY MENTION
IN THE 6Z TAF SET. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DRY FUELS AND MINRH AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ENCOURAGE WILDLAND
FIRE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, LIGHT 20FT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE SPREAD
TO A MINIMUM. WETTING RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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