195
FXUS64 KMEG 151756 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MIDWEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR WORSEN DUE TO A
LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND PROLONGED HEAT. THIS ALSO
RAISES WILDLAND FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AS OF 11AM, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT PORTIONS
OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE REGION. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS AN
ELEVATED MOISTURE AXIS SETS UP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE LATEST
HREF PAINTS A BROADER COVERAGE AREA FOR THIS ACTIVITY, SO EXPANDED
ELEVATED POPS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF
THIS CONVECTION, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY. REGARDLESS, AMOUNTS
WILL DO LITTLE TO COMBAT OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A SQUASHED OMEGA BLOCK ON
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CAROLINAS RETROGRADES INTO
THE MID-SOUTH. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE IMPINGEMENT OF A SECONDARY
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WILL RESULT IN THE GRADUAL BREAKDOWN
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED OMEGA BLOCK. AS THIS OCCURS, DAILY CHANCES
OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GREATER PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST
ON TUESDAY WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FAVORING A DRIER FORECAST.
DAILY HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
BY FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL USHER OUT ANY REMAINING RIDGING, LEADING
TO A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S. IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
ANS
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN IS TSRA CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDEVENING.
NAM MODEL DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY ELEVATED FRONT ALONG THE MS
RIVER AT 00Z, LIFTING NORTH OVER AR THROUGH 06Z WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET. ALOFT, CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN
MIDDLE TN AND SOUTHERN KY. THIS FEATURE MAY PLAY A ROLE IN TSRA
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN ADEQUATE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY,
THE PROB30 TSRA HAS BEEN RETAINED FOR MEM AND INTRODUCED AT JBR
AND MKL.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER CAM GUIDANCE FOR TSRA POTENTIAL
NEAR THE 03Z ONSET OF THE MEM INBOUND PUSH.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK. DRY FUELS AND
MINRH AROUND 30 PERCENT WILL ENCOURAGE WILDLAND FIRE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, LIGHT 20FT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE SPREAD TO A MINIMUM.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION. GREATER WETTING RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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