504
FXUS64 KMEG 022339 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH WEEKEND TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND LINGER THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS UNDERWAY WITH RETURN
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF
10 AM. EXPECT AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD ATTEMPT TO
INITIATE SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN PERSISTENT DRY AIR, ACCUMULATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ON FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A 10% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BRING OUR FIRST CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT, HIGH QPF AND
EXTREME IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. QPF WILL REQUIRE CLOSE MONITORING
AS WE AWAIT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, BUT CLIMATOLOGICALLY PWS
LOOK TO BE ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE WITH SOME AREAS (LIKE ALONG
THE TENNESSEE RIVER) ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
THE RAINFALL FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL BE CUT FAIRLY
SHORT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AIM FOR A COLD FRONT TO
CROSS AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. THIS IS STILL A GOOD WAY OUT,
BUT THERE IS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
DNM
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
LIGHT 20FT WINDS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED FORECAST FUEL MOISTURE
KEEPS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LOW. MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE
MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 35%, BUT A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL HOVER AROUND 30%. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING A PERSISTENT MINIMAL FIRE DANGER CONCERN.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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