017
FXUS64 KMEG 030429
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
CONUS. EXPECT DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE A
LOT OF TIME OVER OPEN WATER, WHICH WILL HINDER ITS OVERALL CHANCES
AT REACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH. HOWEVER, ELEVATED MOISTURE
IS FORECAST TO FUNNEL INTO THE MID-SOUTH AS THE LOW PRESSURE
PUSHES INLAND. BY MONDAY, PWATS WILL NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AT THIS TIME WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE END OF NEXT WEEK MAY FEATURE THE FIRST TRUE FALL COLD FRONT
OF THE YEAR AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LONG TERM FORECASTS FOR NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PLACE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AS A NOTE: THE GFS REMAINS THE MORE BULLISH MODEL IN RESPECT TO
THIS FROPA WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST.
REGARDLESS, THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE NICE AND SEASONABLE.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR AND LIGHT ESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS AIRMASS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO LIMIT
CUMULUS COVERAGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
LIGHT 20FT WINDS AND MINRH ABOVE 35 PERCENT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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