631
FXUS64 KMEG 040426
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE END OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DRIFTING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH DAILY
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
THIS WEEKEND AND SLOWLY PUSH INLAND, ALLOWING INCREASED MOISTURE
TO FUNNEL INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN ON MONDAY
WITH GREATER WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES EXISTING ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EVENTUAL FROPA IS
SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
RAINFALL TOTALS LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES. HOWEVER, GIVEN PWATS NEAR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS TOTAL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST RUNS.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FEATURE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM FORECAST MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING
NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL THE PRECISE IMPACTS,
BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID-SOUTH.
ANS
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE EDGED INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY
LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN AND THE 00Z HREF SUGGEST THAT
THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
RADIATIONAL FOG BETWEEN MKL AND THE TN RIVER TOWARD 12Z.
OTHERWISE, A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS, WITH
VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THIS WEEKEND AS 20FT WINDS
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH AND MINRH HOVERS AROUND 40 PERCENT. WETTING
RAINS RETURN NEXT WEEK, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TO A
MINIMUM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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