625
FXUS64 KMEG 050420
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ON SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY SPAN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
ANOTHER CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE A NOTABLE PATTERN SHIFT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE MID-SOUTH. BY
THE AFTERNOON, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BACK
INTO THE MID 60S, LEADING TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS THAN WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED LATELY. SUNDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR
MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH HIGHS
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
IN THE UPPER-LEVELS, A POSITIVE-TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ROCKIES, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A DEEP, MOISTURE-
RICH ENVIRONMENT FROM THE GULF TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OF UNTIL THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHEST POPS (60-70%) APPEAR TO BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH LINGERING POPS THROUGHOUT BOTH DAYS AND
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TRUE UPLIFT
OR INSTABILITY, THINK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
LIMITED OVER THE THREE DAY PERIOD. COULD SEE A COUPLE MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, BUT STILL THINK THE LACK OF OVERALL DESTABILIZATION WILL
PLAY SPOILER FOR ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE, SO IF WE WERE TO GET ANY
DESTABILIZATION SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST ONLY A 20-30% OF LOCATIONS
RECEIVING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THIS 72 HOUR PERIOD. GENERAL
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE IN THE 1" TO 1.5" RANGE, WITH THE "HIGHER"
AMOUNTS ACROSS NE AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL, AND WEST TN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE, LEAVING
BEHIND DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK, ONLY KNOCKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES AND REMAINING IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. ENSEMBLES FAVOR A DRIER FORECAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR AND LIGHT SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT, AIDING SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION. KNQA AND
KGWX VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOWED EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25KT AT
FL010. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING TO LIMIT FOG
POTENTIAL AROUND MKL AND THE OTHER SMALLER TERMINALS.
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A SCT BKN CUMULUS
FIELD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CHANCES FOR
ANY PRECEDING MVFR DECK IN THE MORNING REMAIN LOW.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 40% ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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