302  
FXUS64 KMEG 060400  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW AND WILL  
LAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO  
THE LOW 80S.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.  
TEMPS ARE MILD AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP UNDER WEAK  
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. THE DRY STRETCH THAT WE HAVE BEEN  
EXPERIENCING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COMING TO AN END  
SHORTLY.  
 
A WEAK, YET MOIST, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST IS  
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH  
FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE  
TO SURGE OVERNIGHT WITH PWS REACHING 2 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE  
MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG WHICH WILL  
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE  
LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING  
PUSHED SE BY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT  
LAKES. AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH WILL LIKELY SET UP  
ACROSS EASTERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN. THIS AREA WILL  
HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH  
PWS EXCEEDING THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE  
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES, ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN  
2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR. THIS WILL CREATE  
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.  
 
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE  
REGION. THE INSTABILITY TICKS UP ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF  
THE MS RIVER, SO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE  
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR DOES INCREASE A BIT ON  
TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE WATCH WHETHER A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT  
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH  
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL  
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT SEEING  
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
NOT MANY CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
TREND LOWER WITH CIGS TOMORROW. A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH ACROSS  
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHRA BEGINNING  
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE 24/30 HOUR TAF  
CYCLE. ADDED VCTS AT MEM, MKL AND JBR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A SIGNAL TO NARROW DOWN  
A WINDOW FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, BUT  
A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY INCREASE THAT RISK AFTER 00Z TOMORROW.  
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, GENERALLY 6-12KTS.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
WETTING RAINS WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
THE WEEK WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER  
RAINFALL TOTALS.  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM  
AVIATION...JDS  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page
Main Text Page