528
FXUS64 KMEG 061124
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 619 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY AND WILL LAST INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING NORTH OF I-40 TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO
THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
TEMPS ARE MILD AND DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP UNDER WEAK
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW. THE DRY STRETCH THAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE COMING TO AN END
SHORTLY.
A WEAK, YET MOIST, UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE PUSHING NORTH
FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE MID-SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SURGE OVERNIGHT WITH PWS REACHING 2 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL WITH MUCAPES RANGING FROM 250-750 J/KG WHICH WILL
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEING
PUSHED SE BY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. AN AXIS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH WILL LIKELY SET UP
ACROSS EASTERN AR, THE MO BOOTHEEL AND WEST TN. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT, INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WITH
PWS EXCEEDING THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE. WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1-2 INCHES, ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF GREATER THAN
2 INCHES ARE LIKELY WHERE TRAINING STORMS OCCUR. THIS WILL CREATE
A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL START MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE INSTABILITY TICKS UP ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE MS RIVER, SO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. 0-6 KM WIND SHEAR DOES INCREASE A BIT ON
TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE WATCH WHETHER A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM THREAT
DEVELOPS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF TUESDAY NIGHT.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT SEEING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE A FEW LIGHT
RETURNS ARE EVIDENT ON RADAR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT YET
REPORT RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOW. HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, THOUGH A VCTS IS
MAINTAINED FOR MEM AND JBR DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN TRACK OF THE LOW.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INTERMITTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH
PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS LIKELY. GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HITTING HARD AT
IFR AND SIGNALING LIFR CIGS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS FROM NOW.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
WETTING RAINS WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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