198
FXUS64 KMEG 062358
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
658 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
- RAIN HAS RETURNED TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS WEDNESDAY, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO
THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
RAIN HAS RETURNED TO THE MID-SOUTH TODAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW
TRAVERSES THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION LAST NIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR PWATS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2",
WHICH IS ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITHIN
THIS THETA E ADVECTION REGIME, WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED WITH MULTIPLE BANDS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. UPPER AIR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
HEAVIER BANDS OF CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
MUCAPE INCREASES. RAIN RATES OF UP TO 2-3" PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THESE BANDS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THESE RATES
ARE ON THE CUSP OF RFC 1-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THANKS TO WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
AND LOW DCAPE.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40, AS
THIS MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS THROUGHOUT THE REGION WITH AMPLE
SOUTHERLY THETA E ADVECTION. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/BANDS SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS MUCAPE FALLS OVERNIGHT, BUT LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING. BY TUESDAY
MORNING, A FRONT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED AND STARTED MOVING EAST
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, BRINGING MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH
IT. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE PAINTS A LARGE SWATH OF QPF THAT FOLLOWS THE
FRONT THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE THROUGHOUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A DIURNAL UPTICK IN CONVECTION. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
RAIN CHANCES CEASING BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE,
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 WILL SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2"-4" OF RAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. AREAS SOUTH WILL STILL RECEIVE UP TO
1"-2".
THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE THE UPPER PATTERN PUSH THE RIDGE
TO OUR EAST BACK WEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE JET STREAM TO TAKE A NORTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION OVER THE MID-
SOUTH, KEEPING THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE, STARTING THURSDAY, THE FORECAST DRIES OUT WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL
INTO THE MID TO LOW 50S, WITH OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING VERY SLOWLY (IF AT ALL) OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, INTERMITTENT -SHRA WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE CAMS ARE SIMULATING A
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SCHEME VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'RE SEEING
RIGHT NOW WITH A BROAD SWATH OF SPORADIC SHOWERS THAT GENTLY
ROTATE ABOUT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW. CONFIDENCE IS VERY
HIGH FOR AN IFR DECK OVERNIGHT, MATERIALIZING AS EARLY AS 06Z
TUE. CEILINGS WILL START TO DETERIORATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND EVENTUALLY GET SOCKED IN TO SUB-1000 FT WELL INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS. DUE TO THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT,
THESE CEILINGS WILL NOT BE QUICK TO IMPROVE. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL LIKELY KEEP CIGS AT OR BELOW MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WED
FOR MOST TERMINALS. WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS A GRADUAL
PROGRESSION FROM SOUTHEAST CLOCKING ALL THE WAY AROUND TO
NORTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WETTING
RAINS SOAK FUELS AND KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
50% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, DRYING THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 AND
UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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