201
FXUS64 KMEG 072345
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION,
MAINLY FOCUSED IN A LINE ALONG A ZONE OF SURFACE CONFLUENCE
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM YESTERDAY'S SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONAL, ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET AS POCKETS OF
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY. AFTER SUNSET, A
STRONGER INTRUSION OF COOLER AIR WILL ENSUE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT. CAMS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS FORMING
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WHICH WILL TRAVEL SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILARLY TO TODAY, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
FAST ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE A HIGHER THREAT OF ANY FLOODING AND
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
LOW.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO TOMORROW MORNING, PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO A RAPID DRYING OF AIR ABOVE 925 MB AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING BEGINS TO SET IN. THEREFORE, DIURNAL
SHOWER CHANCES ARE LOW (< 10%) TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION, COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALSO ARRIVED
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S IN ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF NORTH-
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL WITH WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ON THURSDAY, ALL LOCATIONS IN THE MID-SOUTH WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
70S AND DRY WEATHER.
DRIER, COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WE SIT ON THE BACKSIDE OF TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN COASTLINE,
WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TROPICAL AIR OVER THE GULF. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE AS TROUGHING MOVES EAST SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A LARGER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S
SUNDAY, INCREASING GRADUALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE SETTLED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY UP
TO 20 KTS. IN ADDITION, CONFIDENCE IS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE (40-50%
PROBABILITIES OF CIGS < 3 KFT VIA THE HREF) FOR POST-FRONTAL LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED AN MVFR DECK FOR MOST SITES BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH BETTER FOR TUPELO DROPPING TO IFR OR MAYBE EVEN
LIFR CIGS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TONIGHT. THE TRAILING LINE OF
FINAL PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SWING THROUGH THE AIRSPACE
OVERNIGHT, BUT GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN IS DRYING OUT, DO NOT
THINK ANY OF THIS PRECIP WARRANTED MENTIONING IN THE TAFS ANYWHERE
BUT JBR.
CAD
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
UP TO .5" TO 1" ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SEE PROLONGED
PRECIPITATION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW, DRYING THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
20 FT WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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