788
FXUS64 KMEG 102339 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- PLEASANT, NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
THE MID-SOUTH SITS IN A TRIPLE-POINT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES DEFINED
BY AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE TO OUR WEST, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, AND A SEPARATE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
GEORGIA. AS A RESULT, THE REGION REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A DECAYING MCS PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. A FEW CAMS
DEPICT SPOTTY SHOWERS MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JONESBORO, AR THIS
EVENING BEFORE COMPLETELY DYING OFF. GIVEN A RELATIVELY DRY
COLUMN OF AIR ALOFT, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY
NOT MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A MESSY SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER GEORGIA FORMING INTO AN EARLY SEASON
NOR'EASTER. AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS NORTH, THE RIDGE OUT WEST WILL
FINALLY HAVE A PATH INTO THE MID-SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK TO WARM A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED
FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SINK FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, MEANING THE MID-SOUTH
WILL SEE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. NO SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOTED OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR SO, LIKELY LEADING TO DETERIORATING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR TO MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THIS PERIOD AS MINRH ABOVE 40
PERCENT AND LIGHT 20FT WINDS PREVAIL. THE ONE THING TO WATCH AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BE FUEL MOISTURE AS DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB
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