334
FXUS64 KMEG 110457
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY LOW TO MODERATE HUMIDITY. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH MONDAY, WARMING TO THE
MID 80S BY MIDWEEK.
- NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
OVER THIS WEEKEND, AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM TX INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND A CLOSED LOW OFF THE GA/SC COAST.
THIS RELATIVELY STABLE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS PROCESS, THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY AND TRANSLATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. NBM DETERMINISTIC
MAX TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S, BUT RESIDE IN
THE LOWER HALF THE THE GUIDANCE SPREAD FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS
SUGGESTS SOME DOWNWARD SEASONAL BIAS CORRECTION THAT MAY NOT PAN
OUT, GIVEN 850MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO BE 4-7C ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE MOVED TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, ALLOWING AND THE UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESS TO
THE EAST. GIVEN THAT THIS IS BEYOND 200 HOURS OUT, THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMPLITUDE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. MODEL SPREAD ASIDE, IT APPEARS THAT RAIN
AND MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES ARE WILL BE ON TAP BY LATE NEXT
WEEKEND.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
CONDITIONS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG AND
SUBSEQUENT TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
WARM MID-OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH
MODERATE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY. 20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND RAIN CHANCES SLIM.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...PWB
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