649
FXUS64 KMEG 130415
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, REACHING THE MID
80S BY WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A 582 DAM RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRETCH INTO THE MIDWEST STATES.
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES CAN
BE FOUND ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PRIMED
FOR EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CRISP, COOL MORNINGS WITH PATCHY
FOG IN RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS. DURING THE DAY, PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S TO START THE WORK WEEK. AMPLIFICATION OF THIS RIDGE
IS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
80S BY MID WEEK, WITH SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 20%) OF
90 DEGREES IN THE DELTA REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE INCREASED CHANCES OF 90 DEGREES IN THE DELTA WILL BE AIDED BY
RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP, UPPER TROUGH. THE RIDGE WILL
DEAMPLIFY QUICKLY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS
DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS TROUGH. THE
GFS IS MORE RELAXED AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO. THE GFS JUST HAS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LARGELY NON-SEVERE, AND A NICE SOAKING
RAIN. THE EURO IS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING SHEAR. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN
INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED THIS COMING WEEKEND.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS. N/NE FLOW, SUB 10
KTS WILL PREVAIL.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 40%,
AND LIGHT 20-FOOT WINDS. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND RH VALUES DIP BELOW 40% NEXT WEEK, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. NO RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS TREND.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...DNM
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