983
FXUS64 KMEG 141110 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, REACHING THE MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST. COOL NIGHTS
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S, WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
TRAVERSE EAST ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES TO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE HORIZON FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD AS A
DEEP TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH THIS WEEKEND; HOWEVER, THE
PRECISE TIMING AND SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
LREF JOINT PROBS ARE BETWEEN 30-60% ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO HOUSE INGREDIENTS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. UNCERTAINTY SHOWS AS THE GFS DISPLAYS THE TROUGH MUCH
WEAKER AND THE PROBABILITIES ARE LESS FAVORABLE. NOT ONLY IS
THERE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN INTENSITY, BUT TIMING IS STILL FUZZY. A
FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE QUICK MOVING AND
ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CLEAR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHILE
OTHER MEMBERS FAVOR SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NONETHELESS, THIS IS THE PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO KEEP YOUR
EYES ON. DESPITE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE, THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER (IN THE 70S) BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS, UNDER A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH MINRH VALUES
REMAINING IN THE 30% TO 40% RANGE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, THUS KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS LOW.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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