285
FXUS64 KMEG 141559
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER, REACHING THE MID 80S BY
WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY SATURDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS,
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CREEPING UPWARDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR SUNRISE, THIS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO LOW-LYING AND FOG-PRONE AREAS.
BY SATURDAY, ALL EYES WILL TURN TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALONG
A QUICK-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WE REMAIN OUT OF RANGE FOR
CAMS, SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST DOES REMAIN LOW.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY, TIMING
AND ULTIMATE SEVERITY OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN QUESTION. AN
EARLIER, DAYTIME ARRIVAL OF THE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT IF THE SYSTEM LINGERS TO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INGREDIENTS MAY BECOME LIMITED. AS THINGS
STAND, WITH BEST SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WOULD LIKELY BE FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BUT THIS IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FAR AS
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO, 1" TO 2" SEEMS TO BE THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW < 40% OF EXCEEDING 2" FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA CURRENTLY. WHILE SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED. WITH THIS IN
MIND, THIS RAINFALL SHOULD AID WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
DO EXPECT FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EXIT THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING BEHIND DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 70S. BY MONDAY, SUBTLE RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE
AREA, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS, UNDER A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30% TO 40% RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...PWB
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