600
FXUS64 KMEG 151200 CCA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY. THIS IS
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT,
PRECEDED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH MIDWEEK HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MIDLEVEL RIDGING IS IN FULL SWING OVER THE MID-SOUTH RIGHT NOW. 500
MB HEIGHT CLIMATOLOGIES ARE IN THE 98TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY, WHICH HAS TRANSLATED INTO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BENIGN WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS WARM AND DRY TREND
WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS DOMINANT RIDGING REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE.
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNDERGOES A FAIRLY
QUICK DEAMPLIFICATION, ALLOWING A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH TO CUT
THROUGH THE RIDGING. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL
EVENTUALLY SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. DIGGING INTO THE LREF ENSEMBLE SPACE, THE GEFS STILL
FAVORS A FASTER AND WEAKER TROUGH, WHILE THE ENS FAVORS A SLOWER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH. IF THE FORMER SOLUTION PLAYS OUT, THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE EARLIER IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND
DISPLACED OFF TO OUR WEST OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. IF IT'S MORE
LIKE THE LATTER SOLUTION, THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE MORE IN THE HOT SEAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE JOINT PROBS OF CAPE > 500 J/KG AND SHEAR > 30 KTS;
USING THIS AS A PROXY FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOWS MID RANGE PROBS (40-
50%) FOR THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY IN EACH ENSEMBLE SCENARIO, THERE
ARE JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN AXES OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF
GREATEST POTENTIAL. REGARDLESS, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ON THE TABLE AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY. STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN HAZARDS, BUT THIS DOES LOOK LIKE IT'LL BE A LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES, THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE INTO
NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY QUICKLY BACK TO
NORMAL (LOW 70S) AIDED BY STRONG CAA AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK
RIDGING CLOSELY FOLLOWS AND SENDS TEMPERATURES BACK ON A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL ALLOW MINOR DISTURBANCES TO EMBED IN THE MEAN FLOW AND
TRAVEL ACROSS THE CONUS, WHICH KEEPS POPS AT OR ABOVE 15% FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
LIGHT EAST WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE UNDER A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MINRH VALUES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30% TO 40% RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH LIGHT WINDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY, BRINGING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...PWB
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