416
FXUS64 KMEG 151701
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1201 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY AS DEEP MOISTURE STAYS OUT OF THE
REGION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S
EACH DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT EACH AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT
A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE MID-SOUTH
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER ZONE OF FLOW FURTHER UPSTREAM.
SOUTHERLIES, IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL ADVECT
HIGHER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
THEN RISE AS A CONSEQUENCE WITH 500 - 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH 30+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR; MORE
THAN ENOUGH FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE, THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, AND
THE EVOLUTION OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. REGARDLESS, LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES OF 500 J/KG MUCAPE AND 30+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
REMAIN ABOVE 60% THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS SUCH, SPC HAS RETAINED THE 15% OUTLOOK SATURDAY, EVEN
EXTENDING IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. STORM MODE IS ALSO IN QUESTION
STILL AND WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE
FEATURES, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. EVEN WITH
THOSE UNCERTAINTIES, THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS STILL APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WEAK LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS AND MEAGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT
LOW.
STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS
THE AREA OF STRONGER FLOW QUICKLY MATURES THE UPPER CYCLONE OVER
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONFLUENCE BEHIND THIS TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR THE STRENGTHENING OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING
COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME,
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
40S AND 50S. WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WARM THE REGION UP THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF MORE TROUGHING TO THE WEST.
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS NEXT TROUGH IS STILL MUDDY WITH ENSEMBLES
STRUGGLING WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST, BUT ANOTHER
STRONG TROUGH EJECTION IS CERTAINLY STILL ON THE TABLE SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS BELOW 10 KTS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH
LIGHT 20FT WINDS. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY MORNING. WEATHER WILL THEN BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, AND DRIER, MOVING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...AEH
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