754
FXUS64 KMEG 161129 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
FRIDAY, BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH.
DAILY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S, ACCOMPANIED BY
LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
ON SATURDAY, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING OK/TX. AS A RESULT, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH. AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE MID 60S BY MIDDAY. WAA
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SATURDAY MORNING AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
HOWEVER, GREATER RAIN CHANCES EXIST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SEVERE PARAMETER SPACE ON SATURDAY WILL BE
DEFINED BY DECENT KINEMATICS AND LACK LUSTER THERMODYNAMICS. IN
FACT, THE LATEST ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE TO PAINT GREATER THAN 500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE OVER THE MID-SOUTH. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SLOW THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE FRONT. BY THE TIME STORMS
REACH THE MID-SOUTH ON SATURDAY EVENING, BOTH KINEMATICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. DESPITE THIS, A MESSY
CONVECTIVE MODE COMPRISED OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. THEREFORE, DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID-SOUTH.
BEHIND SATURDAY'S COLD FRONT, FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS RETURN WITH
HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SLIGHTLY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR-NORMAL. WEAK MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF TUESDAY'S FRONT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANS
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY UNDER A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MINIMAL FIRE DANGER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
MINRH REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT AND 20FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH.
WETTING RAINS RETURN SATURDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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