398
FXUS64 KMEG 161627
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
CALM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST TODAY AND TOMORROW, ALLOWING FOR
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH DRY WEATHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 50S.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO LEAVE THE REGION SATURDAY AHEAD OF A TROUGH
EXITING INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE, PROMOTING MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THE MID-SOUTH. WITH TIME, A LEAD WAVE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL MAKE
IT TO THE REGION. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE,
ALONGSIDE INCREASING INSTABILITY, WILL KICK OFF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SOMETIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT
ALL ON THE SAME PAGE REGARDING THE TIMING OF WHEN STORMS WILL
ARRIVE WITH STORMS ARRIVING ANYWHERE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. REGARDLESS, A PERSISTENT LINE OF CONVECTION
APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY
EVENING, LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT ON
EXACTLY HOW THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. WHAT IS
CONSISTENT IS THE STORM MODE, WHICH APPEARS TO TAKE THE FORM OF A
PERSISTENT MCS PROPAGATED BY EITHER A COLD FRONT OR STRONG COLD-
POOLING. WEAK (~500-750 J/KG) SURFACE INSTABILITY, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW FOR A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY PASS THROUGH THE REGION. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY FALL BELOW 7 C/KM, DIMINISHING
THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF THE HAIL THREAT. THE FORECAST IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING A TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS
COMPOUNDED WITH SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE IN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
MOISTURE PROFILES AMONGST GUIDANCE. THEREFORE, A LARGER TORNADO
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE, BUT WON'T BE CLEAR UNTIL WE GET CLOSER
TO THE EVENT. SPC HAS OUTLINED THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF THESE INGREDIENTS AS A SLIGHT RISK ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING STRONG CAA AND COOLER WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE WITH A NEW
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS BY TUESDAY, BRINGING A
SECOND COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR
NORTH ANY MOISTURE RETURN WILL MAKE IT WHICH IS VERY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. AFTER THE SECOND COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS BETWEEN
6-9 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT WITH LIGHT 20 FT WINDS. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 80%-90%
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS, DRYING OUT THE AREA SUNDAY, DROPPING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO NEAR 30 PERCENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CJC
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