479
FXUS64 KMEG 301108
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
608 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
EVENING UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE
TENNESSEE WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW AT THE SURFACE. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH 10 PM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOWER 50S.
SKIES WILL CLEAR INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST-
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER IN THE
50S ON THURSDAY BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FROST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. WHILE 01Z NBM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS, FORECAST LOWS HAVE BEEN BLENDED BACK TOWARDS THE NBM
50TH PERCENTILE, ACCOUNTING FOR THE FAVORABLE FROST SETUP TYPICAL
NBM LOW TEMPERATURE WARM BIAS. CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS MODERATE
THAT WE'LL NEED A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS THESE AREAS.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE OHIO AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
BACK TO THE REGION WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING LESS THAN FAVORABLE
FOR INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LONG TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HEIGHTS GRADUALLY INCREASING NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT WITH VFR CONDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
REGION. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
50 PERCENT INTO THIS WEEKEND AND AVERAGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM
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