638
FXUS64 KMEG 302328
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 618 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S SURFACE LOW. RAIN HAS SINCE MOVED WELL EAST OF
THE MID-SOUTH WITH CLEARING SKIES EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE TOO MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON, A RESULT OF WEAK CAA AND DIURNAL HEATING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE THEREFORE LIKELY TO WARM IN TO THE 50S AND LOW
60S AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF 12Z UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SHOW VERY
DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB, WHICH SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS FROM CONTAMINATING
THIS PROCESS. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO
FALL TO THE COLDEST WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME AND COULD
REACH INTO THE MID 30S IN SOME AREAS. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, FROST
WOULD BE POSSIBLE BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME COMPLICATING FACTORS
IN THE FORECAST THAT PRECLUDES A FROST ADVISORY TODAY. THE MAIN
ONE BEING THAT GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX OUR DEW
POINTS DOWN THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY DUE TO EVAPORATION FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAINS. EVEN THE HRRR, WHICH IS NOTORIOUS FOR
OVER-MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, HAS DEW POINTS IN THE 40S
THROUGH 00Z AND KEEPS OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE OUR THRESHOLD OF 37 F.
SO, HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
AREAS OF PATCHY FROST ARE STILL POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN AROUND 40 F THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE, SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST, SPITTING OUT A NEW TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY THAT WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY. PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALONGSIDE DECENT DPVA WILL BRING INCREASED POPS (20%-30%) LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE TO ROBUST AT THIS MOMENT WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE NBM ONLY BRINGING 0.4" - 0.6" THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
RAIN WILL END BY MONDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING LOW IN THE GULF. SOME
GEFS MEMBERS KEEP THIS TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST AS A CUTOFF LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED LONGER
THAN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION. REGARDLESS, THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK AND BRING PREVAILING
DRY WEATHER. A WARMING TREND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RECENT RAINS
HAVE KEPT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40%, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN TO THIS WEEKEND. 20 FT WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN IS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WITH A 20% - 30%
CHANCE, ENDING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...CAD
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