469
FXUS64 KMEG 312337 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WORKWEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SPOOKILY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THIS HALLOWEEN
DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST AT THE
SURFACE AS A 1020MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND 40S. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE, NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER-LOW, CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST, SLOWLY MEANDERS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
TANDEM SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
AS OUR MOISTURE PROFILE INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE,
SHOWERS CHANCES (30-70%) WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TOMORROW
MORNING, NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A DECENT SWATH OF CAA WILL ALSO
MOVE IN OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT RESULTING IN
SINKING AIR AND IN TURN LEADING TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY AS THIS
FRONT MOVES IN. AS SUCH, THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
VIRTUALLY NON- EXISTENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LOW PUSHES EAST, PAST OUR AREA. SUNDAY
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME EARLY MORNING FROST AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH SATURATED SURFACES FROM PREVIOUS RAIN.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE A CHILLY ONE WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AS AMPLE
CAA FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING, DRYING US OUT AND
INCREASING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S. BY MONDAY EVENING, AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND BEGIN COMMAND THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THIS PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK-WEEK AND INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A LATE
WEEK TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE ROCKIES AND AN ATTENDANT OCCLUDED
FRONT BRINGING SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA TO ROUND OUT THE WORK-
WEEK. HOWEVER, WE ARE A LITTLE WAYS OUT FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
AEH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER A THICKENING VEIL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL.
ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED AREAS OF -RA
WILL OCCUR FROM HIGH-BASED CLOUDS, MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF MEM.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS, THOUGH WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL BELOW 10KT.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 50% FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THEREFORE, FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL
REMAIN AT A MINIMUM. OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL RETURN
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...PWB
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