240
FXUS64 KMEG 010436
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1136 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
COOL WEATHER CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO STAY
IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. THE DRY WEATHER, HOWEVER, WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED WITH A NEW TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY.
UPPER HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENCOURAGE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WHICH IS
ALREADY OCCURRING OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL ADVECT EAST INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ALONGSIDE THE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS AMONGST
GUIDANCE ARE RATHER LOW WITH ONLY UP TO .5" ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TENNESSEE. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE FAST MOTION OF THE UPPER FORCING.
RAINFALL WILL END SOMETIME EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AMPLIFYING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. COLDER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S SUNDAY. THIS TREND ONLY CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HAVING A 60%-80% CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 35 F
PER THE LATEST NBM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY
MORNING AS MANY AREAS WILL APPROACH 32 F FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
LAST WINTER. HIGHS WILL DROP ACCORDINGLY WITH MUCH OF THE REGION
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RIDGING WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS WEEKEND'S UPPER TROUGH AS IT
MOVES OUT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL
START IN THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY, QUICKLY WARMING ABOVE 70
WEDNESDAY, AND HITTING PLATEAU THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS REASONABLY HIGH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMING ZONAL WHICH WOULD KEEP WEATHER BENIGN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FEW GEFS MEMBERS DO SHOW A LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE BRINGING SOME HEIGHT FALLS INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
AND SOME INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS STILL
SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE 06Z TAFS. LATE AFTERNOON
SHRA APPEAR ON TRACK, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH OF
MEM. THIS LIGHT RAINFALL WILL FALL MAINLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
A BRIEF MVFR CIG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT JBR. OTHERWISE, MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED THE AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1014 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LOW FIRE WEATHER DANGER FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% WITH LIGHT 20 FT
WINDS. WETTING RAINS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
WITH ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB
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