529
FXUS64 KMEG 011735
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT, BRINGING A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE) EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A GRADUAL WARMING RETURNS NEXT WEEK, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CLEVELAND, OHIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO LITTLE ROCK, ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
NOTED ON RADAR ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS. ALOFT, A LARGE CUTOFF LOW REMAINS OVER SE IOWA WITH A
BROAD TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH TRAILING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT AND
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE PARTICULARLY CHILLY, LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AREAWIDE AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (GREATER
THAN 80% CHANCE) ACROSS MUCH OF W TENNESSEE AND PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE ENDED AS OF OCTOBER
31, SO NO PRODUCTS WILL BE COLLABORATED OR ISSUED.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND PEAK IN THE MID 70S
BY LATE WEEK, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE TIMING AND STRENGTH
DISAGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS FOR NEXT WEEKEND
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST/SOUTHEAST OUT AHEAD AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY PREVAILING -SHRA AND BR WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CEILINGS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FALL TO INTERMITTENT
IFR, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL MVFR
CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO VFR AROUND 15Z. WEST LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
WETTING RAIN WILL RETURN TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 TODAY,
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE OF FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY MORNING.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
40 TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S. FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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