733
FXUS64 KMEG 020412
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
- DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING. MONDAY
MORNING MAY BRING FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-SOUTH,
PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OUTSIDE OF THE
MEMPHIS URBAN CENTER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK, AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WINDS RETURN. A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
LATE EVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY, MOVING SOUTHEAST. AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH THIS EVENING,
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RESULTED IN A FEW
REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL OR GRAUPEL NEAR JACKSON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OUT OF THE PICTURE TODAY (SUNDAY), ALLOWING
SUNSHINE TO RETURN. WITH A DRY CANADIAN PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLING
IN, NEAR FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ABOUT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE TIME FOR A FIRST SEASONAL FREEZE.
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY AS WE HEAD TO MIDWEEK. LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER PERSISTENT NEAR-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. 19Z NBM DEVELOPS THIS WARMING TREND FASTER THAN IN THE
PREVIOUS RUN, WITH WEDNESDAY MORNING LESS LIKELY TO BRING FREEZING
TEMPS.
THE WARMING TREND WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF OPEN LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY. PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR THIS FRONT.
MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS BEGINS TO WIDEN BY NEXT SUNDAY, MAINLY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVES IN AN OTHERWISE
QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN. OF NOTE, THE GEFS ENSEMBLE NAO INDEX IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE THROUGH MID-NOVEMBER,
SUGGESTING NO PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR COLD SNAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
A FEW METARS IN EASTERN AR AND WEST TN HAVE PICKED UP ON A FL007
POST-FRONTAL CLOUD DECK. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING BRIEF IFR TO MEM
AND MKL OVERNIGHT. AS AN OVERLYING FL060 CLEARS, THERE WILL ALSO
BE A POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL FOG FORMATION, MAINLY EASTERN AR
AND WEST TN, MEM EXCEPTED.
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION
MIXES OUT POST-SUNRISE.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID-SOUTH
TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS MAY SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. MILDER TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING
HUMIDITY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...PWB
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