182
FXUS64 KMEG 022346 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
546 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
- WIDESPREAD FOG AND AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE LOW TO MID 70S BY LATE WEEK.
- SUCCESSIVE COLD FRONTS WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, FIRST ON
FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND; NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE, BUT IS SLOWLY THINNING OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WITH A
WEAK NORTHERLY WIND AT THE SURFACE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS COOL
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. FOG AND FROST ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
BECOME SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED BY WEEK'S END. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AND PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY LATE
WEEK.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE MID-
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE MODEST
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS LIMITED (20-30%) OVERLAP OF KEY
INGREDIENTS MUCAPE > 500 J/KG, MUCIN < 25 J/KG, AND BULK SHEAR >
30 KNOTS. THIS INDICATES A DISORGANIZED STORM MODE WITH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THESE PARAMETERS
EVOLVE AS MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
A BROADER AND DEEPER TROUGH WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS POOR
OVERLAP (10-20%) FOR SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS. THE AIRMASS
RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED BY THE PREVIOUS DAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NONETHELESS, THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS RADIATIONAL FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. 22Z
NBM, 12Z HREF AND 22Z HRRR DEPICT LIFR VIS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
REGARDING LIFR VIS POTENTIAL AT MKL AND TUP AFTER 06Z.
FOR MEM, THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
DEPICTION OF LIFR VIS OVER SHELBY COUNTY, OUTSIDE OF THE MEMPHIS
URBAN CORE. WITH POTENTIAL LIFR VIS IN THE MEM VICINITY, HAVE
OPTED TO CARRY A TEMPO FOR BCFG IN THE MEM TAF OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
WARM WATER TEMPERATURES OF THE MS RIVER AND NW MS LAKES, WOULDN'T
BE SURPRISED IF SOME STRATUS OVER THESE BODIES OF WATER EDGES OVER
THE FIELD, AIDED BY LIGHT SW FLOW OFF THE DECK.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SUN NOV 2 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 TO 50 PERCENT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK INTO THE
70S. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY
AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING WETTING RAIN BACK TO THE
REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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