317
FXUS64 KMEG 031727
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF WARM-UP, PUSHING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TWO SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WEEKEND
RAIN SYSTEM REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1028MB HIGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH WITH A
1013MB LOW JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ALOFT, A 593 DAM
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION AND AN EXITING TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS.
BROAD ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS AS
THE MAIN JET STREAM SETS UP ACROSS THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER
THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
BY MIDWEEK, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SPAWN A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. DUE TO
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WITHOUT PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID
70S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL DEVELOP TO THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES AND BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD LOW AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LACKLUSTER, WITH
ONLY 20 TO 30% JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE > 500 J/KG, MUCIN >
-25 J/KG, AND BULK WIND SHEAR > 30 KNOTS CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40. DUE TO THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OVERLAPPING PARAMETERS WILL EXIST.
THEREFORE, QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LOW.
A BRIEF 18-24 HOUR WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST BEFORE
ANOTHER SUCCESSIVE SYSTEM MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THIS
SYSTEM, SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES. NONETHELESS, EXPECT ANOTHER QUICK SHOT
OF WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FEATURES A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST MON NOV 3 2025
EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 40
TO 50 PERCENT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 70S. A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AND THEN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING WETTING
RAIN TO THE REGION.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH
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