985
FXUS64 KMEG 041119
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
519 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
BRIEF WARM-UP, PUSHING HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TWO SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT RAINFALL
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WEEKEND
RAIN SYSTEM REMAINS LOW DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER TX. LIGHT WINDS AND COOLER
WEATHER CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITHIN THIS AIRMASS. A WARMING TREND
WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
TRAVELS EAST AND SOUTHERLIES RETURN TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL
ALREADY APPROACH OR REACH 70 F TUESDAY, PLATEAUING IN THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO PASS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY, BUT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SHORTLY
GRAZE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOSTLY ZONAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, A ZONE OF SLIGHTLY MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW AND TROUGHING WILL APPROACH THE REGION, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES HAVE SEEN
A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIATION BETWEEN GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON SURFACE FEATURES. HOWEVER,
WITHIN THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS STARTED
CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT SURFACE
MOISTURE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE OVERLAP OF
SUFFICIENT CAPE/CIN/SHEAR FOR SEVERE HAZARDS IN THIS MODEL SUITE
HAS CLIMBED TO AROUND 30% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
REGION, APPROACHING 50% ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. SO,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (20%-30% CHANCE) THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DEPENDING ON FUTURE GUIDANCE.
A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH FRIDAY'S PRECIPITATION WILL PASS AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY. IN TANDEM, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS BY SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ORBITING THIS LARGER TROUGHING, PASSING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
SOMETIME SATURDAY WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES. REGARDLESS OF THE
TIMING, ANOTHER FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE, BRINGING ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOLER AIR INTO SUNDAY AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER
WEATHER WILL THEN TAKE OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN WITH GROWING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER PATTERN, BUT HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. AS A
RESULT, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH 8-10KTS TODAY AND
TOMORROW, 4-7KTS OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 918 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
LOW FIRE WEATHER DANGER EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT AND LIGHT 20 FT
WINDS. EXPECT A WARM UP OVER THE COMING DAYS WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ALONGSIDE A COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
FRONT WILL PASS SHORTLY AFTER SATURDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL BATCH OF
RAIN SHOWERS. COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL AFTER SUNDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...JDS
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