209
FXUS64 KMEG 042313 AAA
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 508 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES 28 DEGREES OR BELOW) TO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONTINENTAL U.S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE
THIS MORNING, SO OPTED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S.
A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT DUE TO ITS PACIFIC ORIGIN, TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A BROAD AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED TROUGH WILL EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY AND SPAWN A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE FRONT WILL MARCH ACROSS THE INTERIOR CONTINENTAL U.S. AND
INTO THE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, MODEST RETURN FLOW WILL YIELD A RIBBON OF UP TO 500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A 50-60 KNOT MID
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. JOINT PROBABILITIES OF
SBCAPE >500 J/KG, SBCIN > -25 J/KG, AND BULK WIND SHEAR >30 KNOTS
HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 40 TO 80% RANGE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ELEVATED LREF PROBABILITIES COUPLED
WITH NCAR AI-ENS DAY 4 SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED
CONFIDENCE THAT A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CLEAR THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN QUICK SUCCESSION, LIMITING
THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. LREF
GUIDANCE ONLY GENERATES UP TO 150 J/KG OF SBCAPE OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI. ADDITIONALLY, QPF VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW AS THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY ACCELERATE THROUGH THE REGION.
THE POLAR JET WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A SHOT OF POLAR AIR
TO THE REGION AND RESULT IN OUR FIRST AREA-WIDE HARD FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES 28 DEGREES OR BELOW) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
EXPECT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SW FLOW OFF THE DECK THIS EVENING, AHEAD
OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS.
A FEW GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOLLOWING SUNRISE, AS THE MIXING
LAYER DEEPENS. OTHERWISE, VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT, WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON.
A PAIR OF SUCCESSIVE FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT ON
FRIDAY, 20-FT WINDS COULD GUST NEAR 20 MPH, BUT WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SHOULD LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
A POLAR AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
RESULTING IN OUR FIRST HARD FREEZE. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB
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