986
FXUS64 KMEG 050422
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE
(TEMPERATURES 28 DEGREES OR BELOW) TO THE MID-SOUTH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
BENIGN WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS THE MID-SOUTH SITS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL FILTER IN. AIDING THE MOISTURE PULL, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
STRENGTH AND ORIGIN OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL MAKE ITS WAY FROM THE PLAINS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE THE REGION SET UP IN A WEAK WARM
SECTOR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY JOINT
PROBABILITIES FROM THE LREF INDICATING A 40-60% CHANCE OF
>500 J/KG OF CAPE AND >30 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PROBABILITIES DO INCREASE TO AROUND
70% FRIDAY EVENING NEAR THE MS/AL/TN STATE LINE AREAS. WITH THESE
PROBABILITIES, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS DRAWN WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.
THE FRONT THAT BRINGS OUR WEATHER FRIDAY, WILL BE QUICKLY SWOOPED
THROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH. THUNDER AND/OR SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD BE LIMITED ON SATURDAY DUE TO LACK OF RECOVERY TIME AND
STABILITY FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE NIGHT BEFORE. CURRENT QPF
FOR THE WEEKEND REMAINS LESS THAN AN INCH. BEHIND THE MAIN
TROUGH, COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY SETTLE IN. OUR FIRST FREEZE AND
EVEN A HARD FREEZE (LESS THAN 28F) LOOM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DNM
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 30 HOURS, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
FOR AVIATION.
FL020 S/SW WINDS AROUND 30KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT,
AHEAD OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH. AT THE
SURFACE, A NOCTURNAL INVERSION SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT
WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10KT AFTER 15Z, THEN
WEAKEN BY 21Z.
PWB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40% EACH DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL KICK OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WRESTLING IN NO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...PWB
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